Delphi method

The view that two minds are better than one is accepted by many societies and legal systems around the world, and the scope of this belief has extended to the point where many decisions are made by groups and committees today. Studies have shown that managers spend more than forty percent of their time in meetings, and undoubtedly a large part of this time is spent identifying problems, determining solutions, and selecting appropriate implementation tools.
In group decisions, information is more complete and comprehensive, and the solution and final result are easily accepted by all members because they have contributed to its formation and participated in the decision-making process. Brainstorming and brainstorming sessions, which can be conducted with different approaches and methods, try to utilize the abilities of all members of the group to reach an answer to an organizational question. Consultative meetings can be conducted in one of the following ways:
– Brain storming
– Nominal method
– Delphi method
– Remote roundtable
– Six thinking hats
– ….
Among all the methods and approaches used in brainstorming and collaboration sessions, the two most well-known methods are brainstorming and Delphi.
The Delphi method is used in futures research and is mainly used to discover innovative and reliable ideas or to provide appropriate information for decision-making. This method is a structured process for collecting and classifying the knowledge available to a group of experts and specialists.
The Delphi method is based on a dialectical research approach, namely: thesis (creating an opinion or opinion), counter-thesis (opposing opinion or opinion), and finally, synthesis (new agreement and consensus), which is created following the process of building a new theory.

According to Helmer (1997), Delphi is a useful communication tool between a group of experts that facilitates the formulation of group members’ opinions.
Wissema (1982) emphasizes the importance of the Delphi method, referring to it as a method for “a univariate exploration” of the future of technologies. He adds that the Delphi method is designed to enable discussions among experts, thus avoiding the influence of social interactions that usually occur in group discussions and lead to an obstacle to the formation of opinions and opinions.
The basis of the Delphi method or technique is that each participant is an expert in his or her own scientific field. Therefore, unlike survey research methods, the validity of the Delphi method does not depend on the number of participants in the research but on the scientific credibility of the participating experts. Participants in a Delphi research include from 5 to 20 people. The minimum number of participants depends on how the research method is designed.


The main elements in the early Delphi methods are:
– Structuring the flow of information
– Providing feedback to participants
– Not disclosing the identity of participants


The most important point in the Delphi method is to overcome the negative points found in conventional committees. According to Fowles (1978), anonymity, controlled feedback, and statistically based responses are the most important characteristics of Delphi.

Uses of the Delphi method:
– Predicting a specific one-dimensional issue in the future
– Creating consensus
– Preventing the dominance of group think and minority silence (Spiral of Silence)
– Generating innovative ideas
– Predicting long-term strategic decisions

Positive points of the Delphi method:
– Rapid achievement of consensus
– No geographical restrictions for participants
– Ability to cover a large range of experts
– Prevention of the dominance of group thinking
– Power to predict complex one-dimensional issues

The most appropriate conditions for using the Delphi method:
• If using the opinions of “people with great insight and experience” is more powerful than “theoretical approaches or extrapolation of trends” to predict the future.
• Complex topics
• Lack of sufficient background for communication between participating experts and experts.
• The background and experiences required for the research include a wide range of backgrounds and experiences.
• The impossibility of exchanging ideas through meetings and gatherings.

• High levels of conflict between individuals or unfavorable political conditions.